Top Prospects: Scottish Premiership (Part Three)
Who doesn't love a teenage potential "wonderkid?"
Top Prospects: Scottish Premiership (Part Three)
For the finale in my miniseries on interesting prospects in the Scottish Premiership (non-Old Firm category), I’m placing a heavier emphasis on age, having profiled a pair of 23-year-olds in my previous posts. Today, I’m introducing you to – or at least giving you a better look at – Lennon Miller, a 17-year-old midfielder at Motherwell. With apologies to other interesting players like Maksym Kucheriavyi and Daniel Phillips (each at St Johnstone), no content on “top prospects” would be complete without at least one teenage potential “wonderkid” being included.
Photo Courtesy of Motherwell FC via X
Getting to know Lennon Miller
Miller is, I believe I’m correct in saying, the youngest player ever to appear in a competitive match for Motherwell Football Club, whose history stretches to 1886. At the age of less than 17-and-a-half, he’s now made 13 league appearances for the club, including 9 starts this year. Unfortunately, a serious knee injury has kept him out the last few months, but Motherwell are hoping he’ll be back in action in about another month’s time. That’s not only because he’s a homegrown player, but because he’s established himself as a regular starter through some very impressive performances as a combative central midfielder.
Strengths
Lennon Miller is a player whose strengths “jump off the page.”As shown above, Miller is putting up strong-to-elite numbers on a variety of metrics that would indicate his effectiveness as a more defensive midfielder. He’s well into the 90th percentile for duels won and recoveries – again, as a 17-year-old – and around the 75th percentile in tackles won and interceptions. As with any individual player statistics, some of this will have to do with the team he’s playing in. In this case, it’s worth noting that Motherwell tend not to have a great deal of possession – and therefore their players may “overperform” on certain metrics. Regardless, Miller’s performances show he’s not afraid to put himself about, and that physically he’s up for the challenge in a league known for its rough-and-tumble style.
Another piece of Miller’s performance is impressive, especially at his age: he’s in the 95th percentile for fouls won. This might seem like a strange piece of data to focus on, but I think it speaks volumes. Players who win a lot of fouls are often wingers and attackers who force defenders into giving away fouls through their movement and pace. That’s not Lennon Miller’s game. Instead, Miller has a knack for being in the right place at the right time, having excellent body positioning, and reading/anticipating the game well. Here’s a good example of Miller breaking up an attack against Celtic earlier this year. In addition to nullifying attacks, Miller is good at winning free kicks in advanced positions, creating opportunities for attacking set pieces.
These are traits you expect to find in a grizzled veteran in the centre of midfield, not in a 17-year-old. If Miller were to move to a more ball-dominant team (more on that below), you’d expect his numbers in terms of fouls won to go down, but the attributes that are allowing him to perform at this level now should only improve with experience. In other words, if he’s showing these strengths now, how good might he be when he reaches his 20s?
A final point on this note: I like to look at how a player performs against the toughest opposition, to see how consistent his performances are. In games against strong opposition (which I’ve subjectively defined as Celtic, Rangers, Hearts, and Kilmarnock – the four teams with positive goal differences in the SPL this season), Miller has won an average of 2.5 fouls per game – which is actually higher than his average against weaker opposition.
Limitations
Interestingly, scouting reports often cite Miller’s technical quality and vision. We don’t see those attributes reflected in his performances this season, but it’s easy to see how playing for Motherwell might, with all due respect, influence how Miller has opportunities to influence proceedings on the park. For example, his performance in terms of passing and chance creation is well below par for SPL midfielders, but that’s to be expected for a team averaging 44.5% possession, and sitting 9th in the table.
As you can see here, here, and here, Miller can make highly accurate long-distance passes to teammates further up the park. In particular, he’s shown an ability to switch the ball wide left from a position as a right-central midfielder. This season those passes aren’t immediately turning into goalscoring opportunities, but there’s clearly more to his game than solely being a “destroyer.” Miller will want to add some numbers to his game in the second half of this season when it comes to chance creation and incisive passes – WhoScored show Miller with an average of 0.4 Key Passes per game. If he can do that whilst playing in a fairly limited Motherwell side, he’ll be an even more appealing prospect come the summer.
Estimated Value, Contract Situation, Possible Moves
Miller has signed a contract tying him to Motherwell through to 2026. However, if he continues to play significant minutes and contribute at a high level, it’s hard to see Miller staying at Motherwell for too much longer. If he recovers from his patella injury and puts together a strong second half of the season, he could move as soon as this summer. Transfermarkt assess Miller’s value at €800K, but should he move on, I imagine he could challenge or even exceed Motherwell’s current record sale (of David Turnbull to Celtic, in 2020, for €3.0M).
Celtic and Rangers are perhaps the most obvious next steps for Miller, but I’m not sure that should be taken as a given. Neither club has a particularly strong track record in terms of buying players from smaller Scottish clubs. In addition, the pressure to win at both clubs is so strong that players as young as Miller (even an 18- or 19-year-old Miller) could easily struggle for consistent playing time. So, though I’m sure the Old Firm are well aware of Miller’s talents and will be monitoring him closely, destinations in England are just as plausible, if not moreso.
At his age, Miller could be acquired by a Premier League club to continue his development either playing PL2 football, or on loan in the EFL. And we shouldn’t entirely rule out a move to a Championship club, given that several of them will have the financial wherewithal to force Motherwell’s hand.
Recap
That’s it for this mini-series on interesting talents in the Scottish Premiership. If you haven’t already, take a look at the first two instalments, where we looked at Lewis Miller at Hibs and Alex Cochrane at Hearts. Lastly, a few players caught my eye in my research for this series, but didn’t crack my top 3. Players like Kucheriavyi and Phillips, mentioned above, as well as Lewis Mayo at Kilmarnock, offer a lot to like. I hope this series introduced you to some new players worth keeping an eye on in Scotland.