Top Prospects: Scottish Premiership (Part One)
Who's catching the eye in the Scottish Prem?
Scottish football has been the proving ground for many a highly-rated youngster in recent seasons. In the past five seasons (going back to season 18/19), several players who made their breakthrough at Scottish clubs have moved on to “big five” leagues, often in big-money transfers. Here are some examples:
Many of these players – especially amongst the ones with the largest outgoing transfer fees – have their origins outside of Scottish football. However, whether these players came up in Scottish academies or not, these players all used the Scottish stage to attract interest from England and beyond.
Whilst it’s obvious Celtic dominates in terms of the fees commanded (and have done an excellent job of bringing in young talent, improving them, and selling them on), it’s also notable that many Scottish clubs are represented above. Celtic and Rangers have each sold “homegrown” talent (Tierney, Patterson) as well as players they’ve brought in and developed (Bassey, Dembélé, Edouard, et al). In addition, Aberdeen, Hearts, and Hibs are all represented as well.
So, now that the transfer window has opened up again, let’s take a look at who might be the next young players to earn a big move from Scottish football. For the purposes of this analysis, I’ve looked at players who meet the following criteria:
Born in 2000 or later
Have played 600 or more minutes in the Scottish Premiership this season
Are not on loan in the Scottish Premiership
Do not play for Celtic or Rangers
With apologies to the likes of Matt O’Riley and Ross McCausland, Old Firm players tend to have a higher profile than players at any other Scottish clubs, and my goal with this analysis is to introduce readers to interesting but lesser-known players. So, with all of that said, let’s jump in.
How big is this talent pool?
Given the criteria above, I was somewhat surprised to see that only 23 players qualify. Here they are, in descending order of minutes played.
A few things catch the eye immediately.
Kilmarnock feature three of the five players with the most minutes played;
9 of the 10 non-Old Firm clubs in the Premiership are represented, with Livingston being the sole exception;
Most of these players are in the 22-23 age range, which makes David Watson and Lennon Miller interesting purely by virtue of their age.
These players are nearly all defenders and midfielders. There are no goalkeepers, and only one or two forwards, depending on how one defines that position.
Who’s catching the eye in the Scottish Premiership?
I’m working from an assumption that whilst raw potential plays a part in determining which players might earn a move to a bigger league, buying clubs will want to see evidence that these players can perform well in the Premiership. In this post, I’ll pick out a defender I think is showing enough to earn a move – then I’ll follow up with at least two more players, for a total of three “top prospects.”
Today, we’re focusing in on a right back who’s posting elite defensive statistics, relative to his position, in the Scottish Premiership.
Top Prospect #1: Lewis Miller
Lewis Miller is an 23-year-old Australian who has played 1,184 league minutes for Hibs this season. Part of a recent influx of Aussie talent into the Scottish Premiership, Miller moved to Hibs for an undisclosed fee from Macarthur FC in the summer of 2022, and currently has a market value of €500K, according to Transfermarkt. He’s earned 4 caps for Australia, all of which have come recently, after he made his international debut in October 2023 in a friendly against England. Miller’s good form for Hibs is not going unrecognised.
As shown below, Miller has had a strong season thus far. Across a variety of defensive performance metrics, Miller is at or near the top of the league, relative to his position.
Data from FotMob
There’s a fair amount going on in this chart; here’s how to read it. The more a player “fills up” this radar chart, the stronger and more well-rounded their performance. As you can see, Miller is performing at a strong-to-elite level across nearly all of these metrics. Indeed, Miller ranks in the 89th percentile or higher for tackles won, duels won, aerial duels won, aerial duels won rate, interceptions, and recoveries. In other words, he’s outperforming 89% of full backs in the league on these metrics. And whilst Miller has improved his overall defensive output from last season, he shows consistency on many of these metrics, such as his ability to be successful in duels and to be strong in the air. Put simply, here’s a right back who isn’t afraid to do the dirty work in defence, and isn’t a liability in the air the way that many full backs can be.
Looking at what Miller contributes in possession and in attack is, admittedly, a more mixed bag.
Miller is a roughly average performer in terms of expected goals and assists. His pass accuracy and crossing accuracy don’t help him create much by way of chances. Still, Miller does offer some strengths going forward. For one thing, he wins loads of fouls. He also isn’t afraid to take on an opponent and dribble past them – although his successful dribbles are a function of volume, not efficiency. He does have a good tendency to win touches in the opposition box, which has helped him chip in with 2 goals so far this season.
Where could Miller move next?
According to Transfermarkt, Miller’s contract runs to the end of next season, although Hibs have an option to extend the contract by a year. Given his contract situation, his estimated market value, and Hibs’ position in football’s financial pecking order, Miller could be available for a fee in the range of €1.5-2.5M. I doubt Miller would move “up” in Scotland, i.e. to the Old Firm, given that they’d likely want a more attacking profile in a full back. However, he could be a fit for an English Championship club looking to shore up its defensive solidity and get younger in the right back position. Clubs like Plymouth Argyle, Huddersfield Town, and Sheffield Wednesday ship a lot of goals, and could be able to afford Miller – particularly in an effort to maintain their Championship status.
So that’s Lewis Miller, first in our mini-series on intriguing young prospects playing in the Scottish Premiership. Coming soon, we’ll have profiles of two more interesting players worth knowing about.